In May 2025, both the volume and price of prebaked anode export orders rose, while the raw material market remained weak, and the support for export prices weakened [SMM analysis]

SMM reported on July 4:

According to customs data, China's prebaked anode exports in May 2025 reached 186,800 mt, down 6.34% YoY and up 21.27% MoM. The average export price of prebaked anode in May 2024 was roughly estimated at $868.71/mt, up 27.03% YoY and 2.97% MoM. China's cumulative prebaked anode exports in 2025 totaled 923,500 mt, up 9.08% YoY.

From the perspective of domestic export regions, prebaked anode exports in 2025 were concentrated in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hunan provinces. Shandong province's cumulative exports totaled 719,500 mt, accounting for 78% of the total and ranking first. Jiangsu province followed with cumulative exports of 67,800 mt, accounting for 8% of the total, while Hunan province had cumulative exports of 67,200 mt, accounting for 7% of the total.

From the perspective of export countries, China's main export destinations for prebaked anode in 2025 were Malaysia, Canada, and the UAE, accounting for approximately 47% of total exports. Malaysia's total prebaked anode exports reached 165,600 mt, accounting for 18% of the total, down 27.65% YoY. Canada's total prebaked anode exports were roughly 148,400 mt, accounting for 16% of the total, up 19.93% YoY. The UAE's total prebaked anode exports were approximately 116,100 mt, accounting for 13% of the total, up 13.13% YoY.

From the prebaked anode export data in May 2025, export volumes showed an upward trend compared to the previous month. Specifically, export orders to Indonesia, Canada, and the UAE increased significantly, all exceeding 10%, with a total increase of over 80,000 mt. However, orders to Malaysia, Iceland, and Russia declined. Southeast Asia and the Middle East regions have become the core engines of export growth due to industrial policy support and active investment, while demand in some traditional markets has contracted due to local capacity adjustments. Overall, prebaked anode export orders performed well in 2025, primarily due to the continuous release of new capacity in overseas aluminum markets and the gradual recovery of some enterprises' capacity, driving demand growth for prebaked anode. Additionally, after entering Q2 2025, the raw material side of prebaked anode showed signs of weakness, gradually weakening the driving force behind price increases. It is expected that subsequent export order prices will turn downward. Looking ahead, factors such as frequent fluctuations in raw material prices, complex and changing geopolitical risks, and a slowdown in global macroeconomic growth may adversely affect the price system and delivery rhythm of prebaked anode export orders. Continuous attention to relevant market dynamics is required.